CNN has been promoting the 5th Republican primary debate as if we’re about to watch The Hunger Games [watch the CNN trailer]. While we won’t hear a cannon shot and see pictures of the candidates afterwards because they’ve been figuratively killed during the debate, we might see certain elephants make a big splat after falling from the tightrope they’ve been walking. This is especially true given Cruz’s recent surge in the Iowa polls.

The debates have become fairly predictable in terms of their topoi. Think of topoi as lines of argument or recurrent themes you find speakers returning to. Here are my own predictions about what you can expect:

Topoi to watch for during the debate—Confidence Level: High

I will be the toughest when it comes to defeating ISIS/ ISIL / Daesh. [See here for the distinction among these terms.] Whatever you call them, they’re basically the people we’re fighting against. Everyone except perhaps Trump (who is content to let Russia wipe them out) will stress the importance of a coalition that includes participation by the Gulf States. Beyond that, strategies will range from no-fly zones to boots on the ground to glowing sand (Cruz’s oblique reference to using nuclear weapons).

We are losing the war on terror…”because the government spends more time reading the emails and phone calls of our citizens than those of terrorists, because we lack leadership in Washington, because President Obama and Secretary Clinton are appeasers, because we won’t call those we’re fighting against what they really are (radical Islamic terrorists.”) Maybe they’ll talk about funding sources of terror and maybe they won’t.

I have the best possible tax reform plan available … “because it is revenue neutral, because it is the fairest tax, because it does the most to help the middle class, because XYZ institute has said it’s the best, because I’ve done more to lower taxes than anyone else on the stage.” Expect each candidate to try to overwhelm each other (and the audience) by reciting a lengthy list of numbers and hypothetical examples about how a particular tax plan would look in practice. (I’m hoping Fiorina will finally unveil her three-page tax form.)

No point in all of American history is as important as the 2016 elections…”because we are at the precipice, because we’re on the road to socialism, because we’re in a fight for the survival of Western civilization, because the government has taken control of our lives.”

Topoi to watch for during the debate—Confidence Level: Medium

On my first day in office, I will…”repeal Obamacare, call my good friend Bibi Netanyahu to let him know Israel has no stronger ally than the U.S., call Vladimir Putin and put him on notice, introduce legislation that stengthens the first and second amendments, tell the terrorists we’re done messing around.” Given that inauguration day is Friday, January 20, 2017 and the President officially assumes office at noon that day, they’d better have a time condensation machine at their disposal.

The media have been unfair to me / us…”because they have a liberal bias, because they ask gotcha questions, because they ask questions no one cares about, because they take things out of context.” I think some of this criticism is warranted, as I wrote in the post about how the debates have derailed. Moderators can be snarky and they do ask some pretty lame questions. However, it’s always an easy diversion for candidates to respond to a tough question by attacking the media. My own criticism of the media takes a different tack, as I find them to be less “lamestream” and more “tamestream” by not following up and rarely asking for evidence. (The exception has been Chris Wallace of Fox News during the first debate.)

Other Things You Can Expect During the Debate

Everyone will need to address the Syrian refugee issue. Aside from Trump’s outright ban on Muslims entering the country, and Cruz’s plan to let in only Christian refugees, candidates will range in their plans to address this issue from admonishing us to “re-examine, be very careful, be extremely careful” in vetting refugee visas and marriage visas to banning them altogether or placing them in camps.

We might also see more efforts to briefly wallow in their own uniqueness, as this becomes even more of a rhetorical necessity as the field of candidates is whittled down. Up to this point, candidates (including those who have already fallen) have attempted to stand out by, in their own words: “being the only one on the stage…

who has come out strongly against the war in Iraq because he knew it would destabilize the Middle East. [Trump, RD1]

who has a five year budget plan that balances the budget [Paul, RD1]

who leads Hilary Clinton in five states President Obama won. [Paul, RD1]

who has separated Siamese twins [Carson, RD1]

who has stood up to career politicians in Washington [Cruz, RD1]

who has implemented large tax cuts and job growth that has done it both in Washington and as a governor [Kasish, RD2]

who has actually introduced a plan to repeal Obamacare on day 1 [Walker, RD2]

who can say he has created tens of thousands of jobs [Trump, RD3]

Personal Challenges. Trump will refuse to apologize for anything offensive he’s said and will instead double down. Given Cruz’s lead in Iowa, Trump might also decide it’s time to start mixing it up, although it probably won’t escalate into a full-blown cage match. Carson will need to prove his foreign policy chops, probably by correctly pronouncing some foreign names. Bush will try to be more assertive, but it looks like he can only win the primary battle now by attrition. Kasich will whinge about someone with his experience not ranking higher and moderately chastise voters for aligning with those he considers novice politicians with unworkable ideas. Some will complain about not having enough time to respond when another candidate attacks them. We’ll also be sure to hear “What the American People Really Care About.”

If you haven’t already, I encourage you to read the related post on how the debates thus far have derailed. The 5th debate will see lots of ideas that depend on implementation by fiat power rather then by negotiation with Congress. It would be nice to see a new idea or assertions backed with evidence, but don’t hold your breath. Let the 5th Republican debate Hunger Games begin!